How is China’s trade this year?
According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China’s total import and export value was ￥6.18 trillion, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports were ￥3.5 trillion, an increase of 0.9%. Imports were ￥2.68 trillion, a decrease of 2.9%. The trade surplus was￥810.32 billion, an increase of 16.2%. In terms of US dollars, the total value of imports and exports in the first two months of this year was US$895.72 billion, a decrease of 8.3%. Among them, exports were US$506.3 billion, down 6.8%. Imports were US$389.42 billion, down 10.2%. The trade surplus was US$116.88 billion, up 6.8%. Affected by the cyclical impact of many factories having early holidays and starting late during the Spring Festival this year, China’s import and export data in the first two months did decline slightly, but there was no cliff-like decline as reported on the Internet, but relatively stable.
However, it is an indisputable fact that individual enterprises who have experienced a general increase in international trade under Covid-19 feel the pressure has risen sharply this year. Compared with the data of the same period in the past two years, the challenges at the beginning of this year can be seen from this. According to the historical data of the customs, in the first two months of 2022, total import and export value in China increased by 13.3% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 13.6%. In the first two months of 2021, the total import and export value of last year’s growth was 32.2%, of which exports increased by 50.1%. Putting aside the general increase in international trade due to Covid-19 in 2021 and 2022 and the abnormal situation in early 2020, in the first two months of 2019, the imports and exports increased by 0.7% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 0.1% and imports increased by 1.5%. It seems that the start of this year is more like the state of the year before Covid-19. Generally speaking, the first quarter is often the period of the slowest international trade growth in the whole year, which not only includes the Spring Festival in China but also includes the cold winter in many countries.
Reminiscent of the previous concern about the accumulation of empty containers at the port, judging from the latest trade data, the accumulation of empty containers is affected by the continuous contraction of external demand. However, the fundamental factor lies in the changes in the supply and demand of the shipping industry itself. On the one hand, a large number of new containers flowed into the market during the previous period of skyrocketing freight rates, and the supply doubled. According to public data, in 2021, under the booming container shipping market, more than 7 million TEUs of containers will be produced globally, which is nearly three times that of conventional years. On the other hand, during the Covid-19 period, the problem of port congestion has disappeared, and the supply has increased significantly under smooth conditions. Coupled with the cyclical reason of the Spring Festival, the oversupply became more and more obvious.
However, judging from the inquiry data on the platform, the next demand is not pessimistic. According to the data from the international station platform, since February, the demand for overseas orders has continued to grow rapidly, especially when entering the peak season of international trade every year in March, the trend is picking up. On the first day of the new trade festival in March, the demand for overseas orders on the international station platform increased by 30% year-on-year. In fact, under the superposition of factors such as high inflation in Europe and the United States, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and trade frictions, a large number of trade companies have shifted their focus from the original focus on Europe and the United States to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other more diversified markets in recent years.
In terms of stable scale, in addition to stabilizing expectations through stable policies, stabilizing trade channels, and encouraging enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on stabilizing the market this year. Traditional markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea must be stabilized, and emerging markets must be developed. The market potential of such countries is huge. In terms of optimal structure, on the one hand, the Ministry of Commerce will optimize the trade mode, while strengthening general trade, supporting the transfer of processing trade, and upgrading development. On the other hand, it will optimize the layout of the foreign trade supply chain, implement the regional coordinated development strategy, and improve the quality of trade, increase the proportion of trade in the central and western regions and the northeastern region; in addition, it will optimize the product structure, cultivate new momentum for trade, consolidate traditional advantages, and continuously cultivate new trade growth points in the industrial upgrading. In the final analysis, the situation this year is relatively severe, but we are more confident.
